Spatial complexity and fit between ecology and management : Making sense of patterns in fragmented landscapes

Avoiding the negative effects of habitat fragmentation on biodiversity is especially challenging when also the management institutions are spatially and administratively distributed. This doctoral thesis introduces five case studies that investigate ecological, social and social-ecological relations in fragmented landscapes. I present new approaches in which research and governance can detect and manage mismatches between landscape ecology and planning. The case studies include urban and forested landscapes where an intense land-use is limiting the connectivity, i.e., the potential for many species to disperse between the remaining patches of habitat. Graph-theoretic (network) models are applied to map connectivity patterns and to estimate the outcome for dispersing species at the patch level and for the whole study system. In particular, the network models are applied to evaluate the spatial complexity and the potential mismatches between ecological connectivity and geographically distributed management institutions like protected areas and municipalities. Interviews with municipal ecologists complement the spatial analysis; revealing some problems and ways forward regarding the communication and integration of ecological knowledge within local spatial-planning agencies. The results also show that network models are useful to identify and communicate critical ecological and social-ecological patterns that call for management attention. I suggest some developments of network models as to include interactions between species and across governance levels. Finally, I conclude that more effort is needed for network models to materialize into ecological learning and transformation in management processes.At the time of the doctoral defence the following papers were unpublished and had a status as follows: Paper 1: Manuscript. Paper 2: Manuscript.</p

Traffic Route Guidance using Feedback of Predicted Travel Times : Improving Travel Times in the Berlin Traffic Network

Traffic congestions constitute a problem in many large cities. Congestions can be handled by reducing the network demand, expanding the infrastructure, or by utilizing the road network more efficiently. This master thesis presents a methodology for route guidance, based on automatic feedback control from the current traffic situation. Through variable direction signs or individual in-car devices, all vehicles with a certain origin and destination (which are both normally intermediate) are guided to take the currently fastest route. In this paper the traffic is guided over one of two alternative routes with the goal of a Nash equilibrium, i.e. that every guided agent travels the fastest path. Nash equilibrium occurs when the routes have equal travel times, or when all agents use a route with shorter travel time. Predictive data describing how the system reacts to control measures is fundamental to control the traffic in an optimal way. Feedback of observed travel times results in a system with highly oscillating travel times. Given this background, the task of this thesis has been to present a model that predicts route travel times, with the purpose of improving the performance of traffic route guidance. The approach used is automatic feedback control, and therefore some basic terminology from control theory is used throughout the report. The model introduced in this paper needs no parameter estimation but uses only static information about traffic network and on-line counting of vehicles. Simulations show that with reliable travel time predictions at hand, optimal control can be achieved by bang-bang control; a controller that needs no parameter estimation. The result is a guidance method that has the potential to work on any location without prior estimation of location specific parameters. A microscopic traffic simulator, MATSim, is used for developing the prediction model and evaluating its system effect with route guidance. Simulated in-car COOPERS (Co-operative Systems for Intelligent Road Safety) devices are used for data collection and for transmitting the guidance to vehicles. The prediction models and the feedback control are evaluated in two different traffic networks; a topologically simple test network and a realistic location in the Berlin network. The results of the simulations are promising; guidance with predictive models results in significantly shorter average travel time than guidance based on observed travel times. Evaluation with an economic measure indicates that drivers benefit economically from predictive route guidanc

The problem of spatial fit in social-ecological systems: detecting mismatches between ecological connectivity and land management in an urban region

The problem of institutional fit in social-ecological systems has been empirically documented and conceptually discussed for decades, yet there is a shortage of approaches to systematically and quantitatively examine the level of fit. We address this gap, focusing on spatial fit in an urban and peri-urban regional landscape. Such landscapes typically exhibit significant fragmentation of remnant habitats, which can limit critical species dispersal. This may have detrimental effects on species persistence and ecosystem functioning if land use is planned without consideration of the spatial patterns of fragmentation. Managing habitat fragmentation is particularly challenging when the scale of fragmentation reaches beyond the control of single managers, thereby requiring different actors to coordinate their activities to address the problem at the appropriate scale. We present a research approach that maps patterns of collaborations between actors who manage different parts of a landscape, and then relates these patterns to structures of ecological connectivity. We applied our approach to evaluate the fit between a collaborative wetland management network comprising all 26 municipalities in the Stockholm County in Sweden and an ecologically defined network of dispersed but ecologically interconnected wetlands. Many wetlands in this landscape are either intersected by the boundary between two or more municipalities, or are located close to such boundaries, which implies a degree of ecological interconnectedness and a need for intermunicipal coordination related to wetland management across boundaries. We first estimated the level of ecological connectivity between wetlands in neighboring municipalities, and then used this estimate to elaborate the level of social-ecological fit vis-à-vis intermunicipal collaboration. We found that the level of fit was generally weak. Also, we identified critical misalignments of ecological connectivity and intermunicipal collaboration, respectively, as well as collaborations that represented an adequate alignment. These findings inform on where to most effectively allocate limited resources of collaborative capacity to enhance the level of social-ecological fit. Our approach and results are illustrated using maps, which facilitates the potential application of this method in land use planning practice

Trafikbuller i värdefulla naturmiljöer : metodbeskrivning

Vägtrafikbuller påverkar både människor och vilda djur negativt. Buller upplevs störande, och leder till stress och ohälsa. Hittills har Trafikverket hanterat detta problem främst i bebyggd miljö. Men även i naturmiljöer är buller en allvarlig störningsfaktor, som för människor leder till minskade upplevelsevärden och försämrad rekreation, och för många djur kan ha drastiska effekter såsom ökad dödlighet och försämrad reproduktion. I detta dokument redovisas en metodik för att identifiera värdefulla naturområden där det kan finnas störningskänsliga fågelarter. Metodiken identifierar också konfliktpunkter mellan dessa områden och trafikbuller. Metoden genererar ett nationellt planeringsunderlag som kan utnyttjas på flera sätt inom Trafikverket

Closing the collaborative gap: aligning social and ecological connectivity for better management of interconnected wetlands

Understanding how governance structures align to ecological processes in a landscape is critical for effective management of ecological resources. Ecological resources are not independent from each other, instead they are interconnected, and their well-being is often critically dependent on upholding ecological connectivity, especially in times of change and disturbances. Coordination and collaboration among managing actors, each managing their own piece of the puzzle, is therefore essentially a requirement for effective management. We present a conceptual model that includes ecological resources, managing and coordinating actors, along with an explicit representation on how all these entities are connected to each other. We apply this model to 25 municipalities that manage 408 wetlands in central Sweden. The study shows a good social and ecological alignment, however with a high prevalence for coordination through third parties. We discuss this pattern emergence, its potential implications, and examine which municipalities adopt these coordinating functions

A leverage points perspective on institutions for food security in a smallholder-dominated landscape in southwestern Ethiopia

Despite concerted efforts, achieving the goal of universal food security remains challenging. Food security interventions occur at different levels of systemic depth. Some interventions target visible supply-side gaps, while others focus on deeper systemic problems in the food system. Here, we used a leverage points perspective to ask how multiple types of more superficial (shallow) and more fundamental (deep) interventions in the food system interact. Focusing on a case study in southwestern Ethiopia, we examined (1) recent changes in formal and informal institutions related to food security; (2) the effects of formal and informal institutions on the food system at different levels of systemic depth (i.e., on parameters, feedbacks, design, and intent); and (3) issues of institutional interplay between formal and informal institutions. We surveyed 150 rural households and analyzed key policy documents. Both formal and informal institutions were perceived to improve food security. However, at the intent level, formal institutions primarily aimed to enhance food supply, while informal institutions additionally sought to build trust among farmers. At the design level, formal interventions targeted information flow through a newly created agricultural extension system, while informal institutions facilitated labor sharing and communication. In terms of institutional interplay, new formal institutions had partly undermined pre-existing informal institutions. We conclude that both visible supply-side gaps and deeper drivers of food insecurity should be targeted through food security interventions. Interventions need to be cognizant of potentially unexpected ways of institutional interplay, especially between formal and informal institutions

Identifying governance gaps among interlinked sustainability challenges

Sustainability issues cannot be separated from their social and biophysical context, and collaborative governance responses to interdependent sustainability issues are inherently complex. Governance gaps emerge when responsible actors fail to recognize how multiple issues and actors are interlinked. Closing governance gaps is particularly challenging for sustainability issues that intersect several sectors of society, such as livelihoods, agriculture and biodiversity conservation. This study introduces a new quantitative empirical approach that conceptualizes how governance gaps emerge at the intersection of two networks that are usually studied separately: an actor network and a network of interdependent sustainability issues. We differentiate between (1) integrative gaps that arise when interdependent issues are managed in separation without recognizing their interdependencies, versus (2) collaborative gaps that arise when actors working on common issues do not collaborate. Using data on 60 actors and 38 sustainability issues in southwest Ethiopia, we found comprehensive collaboration networks around, for example, agricultural production and land-use issues, but large collaborative gaps for forest and wildlife issues. While actors actively managed interdependencies around national high-priority issues such as coffee export and family planning, integrative gaps were common for low-profile issues such as access provision of finance, transportation, schools, food and crop markets. In general, smaller specialized actors had a stronger tendency than larger generalist actors to focus their management capacity towards the closing of governance gaps. Surprisingly, greater system complexity did not per se cause governance gaps, except when system interactions were cross-sectoral. Furthermore, our data suggested that integrative system management and collaboration reinforced each other. In conclusion, our network framework advances how governance gaps can be understood and prioritized in different empirical contexts. It enables a theoretically informed empirical identification of the specific sustainability issues for which targeted structural changes are most likely to facilitate improved sustainability outcomes

Identifying governance gaps among interlinked sustainability challenges

Sustainability issues cannot be separated from their social and biophysical context, and collaborative governance responses to interdependent sustainability issues are inherently complex. Governance gaps emerge when responsible actors fail to recognize how multiple issues and actors are interlinked. Closing governance gaps is particularly challenging for sustainability issues that intersect several sectors of society, such as livelihoods, agriculture and biodiversity conservation. This study introduces a new quantitative empirical approach that conceptualizes how governance gaps emerge at the intersection of two networks that are usually studied separately: an actor network and a network of interdependent sustainability issues. We differentiate between (1) integrative gaps that arise when interdependent issues are managed in separation without recognizing their interdependencies, versus (2) collaborative gaps that arise when actors working on common issues do not collaborate. Using data on 60 actors and 38 sustainability issues in southwest Ethiopia, we found comprehensive collaboration networks around, for example, agricultural production and land-use issues, but large collaborative gaps for forest and wildlife issues. While actors actively managed interdependencies around national high-priority issues such as coffee export and family planning, integrative gaps were common for low-profile issues such as access provision of finance, transportation, schools, food and crop markets. In general, smaller specialized actors had a stronger tendency than larger generalist actors to focus their management capacity towards the closing of governance gaps. Surprisingly, greater system complexity did not per se cause governance gaps, except when system interactions were cross-sectoral. Furthermore, our data suggested that integrative system management and collaboration reinforced each other. In conclusion, our network framework advances how governance gaps can be understood and prioritized in different empirical contexts. It enables a theoretically informed empirical identification of the specific sustainability issues for which targeted structural changes are most likely to facilitate improved sustainability outcomes